This is an interesting question with a complicated answer. On the surface one would think that in a market with declining values then real estate taxes would decrease. But they don’t because of something called the reduction factor. The intent was to keep real estate taxes from increasing during the 1970’s when inflation caused soaring housing values. In an increasing market as values increase then the millage goes down, so that districts generally collect about the same amount each year unless voters approve an increase.
Now, that property values are decreasing the opposite is true and the millage will go up (an unintended effect), so that districts collect the same amount. The system is complicated and there are some exceptions. So basically, if your house goes up or down by the average amount that the total property value in the taxing district went up or down, your bill wouldn’t change much. But if your house goes down in value and the entire district goes down by way more (say your house dropped 5 percent, but the district as a whole dropped 20 percent, your bill would likely go up even though your house dropped in value.)
Same thing on the way up. If your house went up 5 percent but the district went up 20 percent, your bill could drop even though your house went up, because the mills would drop. (for example, the millage could “be reduced” from 30 mills to 28 mills).
Your bill is your appraised value X .35 X the mills. So if value goes up and mills go down, the bill changes either up or down.